上海合作组织（SCO）——这个以中国和俄罗斯为首的、发展迅速的六国同盟有时候被称为中亚对北约的回答。该组织将在未来几天提升其战略姿态。但普京对美国、英国和西方的好战立场开始令它和其他成员的关系紧张，因为其他成员的主要兴趣在于生存，而不在于对峙。代号为“和平使命－2007”的军演（包括来自中国、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的6500军人和80架战机）8月9日在俄罗斯乌拉尔地区的车里雅宾斯克开始。

　　对SCO来说，军演标志着它最雄心勃勃的尝试，建立一体化军事安全组织以补充日益扩大的政治和商业合作。中国人民解放军发言人孙海洋（音译，Sun Haiyang）表示，军演不应被视为对西方或对日本韩国的威胁，中国尊重其他国家的主权和领土完整，这样的军演不针对第三方主权国家。SCO年度峰会于下周在吉尔吉斯斯坦的比什凯克举行，将进一步显示该组织的扩张思路。而“长期睦邻友好合作条约”的签署将是一个亮点。

　　可能令北约在喀布尔的指挥官们不安的是，SCO领袖说他们将寻求“在SCO－阿富汗接触组织的框架内与阿富汗更紧密合作。”俄罗斯在退却近二十年后，似乎有意重返阿富汗。

　　伊朗总统内贾德以及来自巴基斯坦、蒙古的重要人物（这些国家都申请加入SCO）将参加比什凯克峰会，印度也会派人出席。吉尔吉斯斯坦外交部长卡拉巴耶夫（Ednan Karabayev）表示，这显示该组织正变得多么重要。“如今SCO已经变成一个基于新价值观和目标的、有影响力的新式国际组织。SCO必定发挥保障国际安全的重要作用。”

　　根据独立的《实力和利益新闻（Power & Interest News Report）》报道，SCO与日俱增的地缘政治影响力有赖于两个带头成员的利益趋同。“对北京和莫斯科来说，该同盟的整体目标是遏制华盛顿在中亚的影响力，以期在那里建立一个联合势力范围。”

　　它认为中国想要安全、资源和市场；俄罗斯想要重拾它对后苏联时期“近邻国家（near abroad）”的影响力；而在经历了2004年到2005年的格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦的“颜色革命”后，建立在“独裁、氏族和裙带体系”上的中亚政权只是希望免受西方民主思想、人权和自由市场的冲击。

　　欧亚每日观察（Eurasia Daily Monitor）的费根霍纳（Pavel Felgenhauer）表示，“随着莫斯科与西方的关系恶化，克里姆林宫尽力寻求盟友，并建立SCO以抗衡北约。在宣传意义上，‘和平使命－2007’将得到充分利用。但SCO其他成员准备共同对付北约吗？”

　　他认为SCO中没有一个成员真的想和西方对峙，将在明年举办奥运的中国就更不用说了，中国的贸易和发展目标与此关系重大。“普京极有可能独自气恼。”

　　普京或他的继承者若继续政治斗气（yah-boo politics），可能会产生相反的后果——削弱他就任以来打造的中俄同盟，让SCO窒息。

　　当一个比布什政府更聪明的美国政府效法尼克松，再次打中国牌，这个时机就可能来临了。

　　译文为摘译，英文原文：

　　Putin's politics put partners on edge：

　　The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation - the fast-developing six-country alliance led by China and Russia that is sometimes called central Asia's answer to Nato - will raise its strategic profile another notch or two in coming days. But Vladimir Putin's belligerent stance towards the US, Britain and the west is beginning to strain ties with fellow members whose main interest is survival, not confrontation.

　　Military exercises, dubbed Peace Mission 2007 and involving 6,500 troops and 80 aircraft from China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, began yesterday in Chelyabinsk, in Russia's Urals region.

　　For the SCO, initiated in 1996 to defuse Sino-Russian territorial disputes, the war games mark its most ambitious attempt yet to build an integrated military-security apparatus to complement expanding political and commercial collaboration.

　　"The drill shows that SCO cooperation over security has gone beyond the issues of regional disarmament and borders for it includes how to deal with non-traditional threats such as terrorists, secessionist forces and extreme religious groups," China Daily said.

　　But it should not be seen as a threat in the west or in Japan or Korea, said spokesman Sun Haiyang of the People's Liberation Army. "China respects other countries' sovereignty and territorial integrity ... Such exercises have never targeted a third country."

　　The SCO's annual heads of state summit, to be held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, next week provides further indications of the organisation's expansive ideas. The signing of a treaty of "long-term good neighbourliness, friendship and cooperation" will be one highlight.

　　Disturbingly perhaps for Nato commanders in Kabul, SCO leaders say they will seek "a closer partnership with Afghanistan in the framework of the SCO-Afghanistan contact group". Nearly 20 years after it retreated, Russia seems intent on returning to Afghanistan.

　　The Bishkek summit will also be attended by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, as well as senior figures from Pakistan and Mongolia - all of which have applied to join the SCO - and India. Ednan Karabayev, the Kyrgyz foreign minister, said this showed how important the organisation was becoming. "Nowadays the SCO has already become an influential new-type international organisation, which is based upon new values and goals. The SCO is destined to play a vital role in ensuring international security."

　　According to the independent Power & Interest News Report, the SCO's increasing geostrategic clout rests on the converging interests of its two leading members. "The overall aim of the alliance for Beijing and Moscow is curbing Washington's influence in central Asia in order to establish a joint sphere of influence there," PINR said.

　　China wanted security, resources and markets, it said; Russia wanted to regain sway in its post-Soviet "near abroad"; and central Asian regimes that relied on "authoritarian, clan-based and crony systems" simply wanted protection from western ideas of democracy, human rights, and free markets in the wake of the 2004-5 "colour revolutions" in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.

　　All shared a desire to suppress Islamist extremism and separatism in whatever form, be it in Chechnya, Tibet or Taiwan, and hold on to power. This agenda has led one regional expert, David Wall of Chatham House, to describe the SCO as a "club for autocrats and dictators".

　　All the same, there are dictators and dictators - and Mr Putin's numerous recent clashes with western countries, ranging from the missile defence row, the Litvinenko poisoning, opposition to US Black Sea military bases, and Kosovo's thwarted independence to malfunctioning Estonian computers, mystery bombs in Georgia, and disputed sovereignty over the north pole are making his partners nervous.

　　"As Moscow's relations with the west deteriorate, the Kremlin is doing its best to seek allies and is building up the SCO to counter-balance Nato. In propaganda terms, Peace Mission 2007 will be used to the full," said Pavel Felgenhauer in the Eurasia Daily Monitor. "But are the other SCO nations ready to line up against Nato?"

　　No one in the SCO, least of all China with next year's Beijing Olympics and its trade and development goals potentially in the firing line, seriously wanted confrontation with the west, he argued. "Putin will most likely be left to huff and puff alone."

　　Mr Putin's testosterone-fuelled yah-boo politics, if continued by him or his successors, could yet have the very opposite result - a weakening of the Sino-Russian alliance he forged at the outset of his presidency and the stifling of the SCO.

　　The time may be approaching when a smarter US administration than that led by George Bush takes a leaf from Richard Nixon - and plays the China card again.